Iraqi Dinar and the Odds
Thinking about investing in dinar iraqi? Here's some food for thought:
Why not take the chance? The only thing you have to think of, is how much can you afford to "gamble". Myself, I have been to Las Vegas, and lost over $1,000 in two days. No big deal, I knew I could afford to lose it, oh well, it was fun trying.
This dinar is the same thing, in the fact that what if. I would hate to be sitting in my living room, watching the news five years down the road, and see that Iraq has been stable for a couple of years, producing unbelievable amounts of oil, and the dinar is worth 2 dollars for one dinar. Now that million dinar i COULD have bought could have made me a millionair.
The thing is, even if it stays the same as it is now, I am not losing any money, and have just made a possible long term investment. Hey, I will be laughing all the way to the porsche dealership!
Comment by Russell at June 27, 2004 06:39 AM
The above comment by Russell on the Truck & Barter forum probably reflects the feelings of 90% of Dinar Iraqi investors. But a recent article in the Wall Street Journal - draws an interesting analogy between investing and basketball and shows just how easy it is for rational decision-making to be trumped by investor emotion and optimism.
Suppose a team is down by two points and it has time for one last shot. What play should the coach call? Let's say there's a 50% chance of scoring on a two-point shot and pushing the game into overtime, but only a 33% chance of making a three-point shot and getting the immediate win.
Most fans (and coaches) choose the 2-point play as the "right" thing to do. But this is not the rational choice. Why? Even if the two-point shot is made, the team still has to win in overtime where the chances again are only 50/50. The overall odds of coming out on top in two consecutive 50/50 gambles is only 25%. The rational choice is the three-pointer, where the odds are 33%.
How does this fit into the world of Iraqi Dinar investing?
Not entirely sure. I've not found anyone who's actually placed statistical "odds" on the chances of Iraqi Dinar skyrocketing, but it would be an interesting exercise. In the meantime, consider the following scenarios as you ponder whether to invest in Iraqi Dinar.
Which of the following choices has the better odds of "hitting it big" with a $1,000 investment:
1. $1,000 invested in Iraqi dinar or buying $1,000 worth of state lottery tickets?
2. $1,000 invested in Iraqi dinar or a $1,000 bet on the longshot in the in the NCAA tourney?
3. $1,000 invested in Iraqi dinar or $1,000 invested in a randomly selected "penny stock"?
4. $1,000 invested in Iraqi dinar or $1,000 invested in a "penny stock" you've taken time to research?
5. $1,000 invested in Iraqi dinar or $1,000 wagered in Vegas?
I don't have the (statistically) correct answers to these questions, but am pretty sure these are the type of questions that should be mulled over before committing an investment. Of course, you can always take the safest route and earn 15% or so by paying down any outstanding credit card debt.
I agree with Russell. Why not take the chance if you could afford it? The Iraqi Dinar is a secure currency and difficult to counterfeit. The Iraqi people use the Dinar when it is to thier advantage and the Iraqi government has confidence in it’s security.
I got my Dinars while I was working in Iraq for a US Contractor to the military. I was making excellent money and had some extre beans to invest with. So I did. I knew even then it may be a long term investment, and I currently have it stashed away in a safe deposit box.
Of course Iraq is in disarray and spiraling down into a potential civil war, but that is the risk I took.
Sooner or later the Iraqi people will get used to their newly acquired freedoms and will get fed up with all the violence which is hindering progress.
I believe firmly that the Iraqi people will rebound and eventually learn to get along no matter what sect they may hail from. With proper leadership and guidance from the Big Powers of the World, I think Iraqi will eventually be a big player in the economic arena albeit it may take a number of years. . . perhaps 5 or 10 before we start seeing any substantial increases in the value of the Dinar.
In the meantime, I will keep in mind what I have and may stand to gain:
11 Million Dinar at current value of $7,482.99
Dinar hits $0.01/Dinar = $110.000.00
Dinar hits $0.25/Dinar = $2,750,000.00
Dinar hits $0.50/Dinar = $5,500,000.00
Dinar hits $1.00/Dinar = $11,000,000,00
I don’t have a problem waiting a number of years of this kind of return.
And if it doesn’t? Oh Well.
James
The Iraqi Dinar conflict is a very interesting dilema but please consider an article position by the American Institute For Economic Research located in Great Barrington, Mass.: The title of the article is: “How Do We Know That We Know Anything”? Hind sight is always 20 X 20 isn’t it? Take my deceased friend who started buying gold at $11/troy oz. We all laughed at him and we stopped laughing when he purchased a new Chevy Picup Truck, after selling 300 silver dollars, once silver hit $50/troy oz. He purchased his silver dollars for 1 Federal Reserve Note each in Reno Nevada. How did he KNOW he’d make out with his investments in Gold & Silver we may not know but our collective hindsight tells us he was an astute investor who shugged off OUR collective mistrust in his ways of looking at investing. He had a book titled: STABLE MONEY & another book titled: “The Intimate Papers Of Coloniel House, the guy who used Wodrow Wilson to sell the American People on the Federal Reserve pluss Social Security. Perhaps the Iraqui Dinar will prove to be more stable than the programs we Americans inherited from Coloniel House through Wodrow Wilson? When will hindsight tell us this answer also? Anybody’s guess or is there a growing consensus; especially in the minds of the younger generation that stands to loose their position & national inheritances via speculation regards future inflation etc.?
Inflations only cure is that it should never happen and so the US $ is headed to its’ true value reduced to paper and ink? This makes us all true speculators at heart, due to our collective patriotism? The worst inflation was the Hungarian Pengo which became denominated in terms of “light yrs.”. Perhaps the Iraqui Dinar will prove more stable then the Pengo and/or the US $ or perhaps cheap, imported or outsourced labor can save the US $. We have a lot more dilema to think over than the Iraqui Dinar shouldn’t we realize? Modern circumstances have proven that we all now have a penchant for speculation, because gone are the days of purchasing Treasury Bills or Bonds with an exact internal rate of return, because nobody knows the future rates of inflation errosion do we?
Thoughtfully,
Russ Smith